Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal

The Regime Shifts Database: a Framework for Analyzing Regime Shifts in Social-ecological Systems

This paper presents the Regime Shifts Database (RSDB), a new online, open-access database that uses a novel consistent framework to systematically analyze regime shifts based on their impacts, key drivers, underlying feedbacks, and management options. The database currently contains 27 generic types of regime shifts, and over 300 specific case studies of a variety of regime shifts. These regime...

Stochastic modeling of regime shifts

Probabilistic methods for modeling the distribution of regimes and their shifts over time are developed by drawing on statistical decision and limit theory of random sums. Multi-annual episodes of opposite sign are graphically and numerically represented by their duration, magnitude, and intensity. Duration is defined as the number of consecutive years above or below a reference line, magnitude...

Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers

A standard capital asset pricing model is extended to allow for stochastic shifts in the volatility of the news process. This model is then estimated on bivariate stock market data to separate two exogenous news processes – a world and a domestic. The results indicate that the influence of the world news process on the Swedish stock market has increased significantly over the period 1970-1995. ...

Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts

Red noise and regime shifts

The analysis of interdecadal physical and biological variability is made challenging by the relative shortness of available time series. It has been suggested that rapid temporal changes of the most energetic empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature (sometimes called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO) represents a ‘‘regime shift’’ between states with otherwise...